National Population Projections

 

  Lastest Release:
National projection is likely be updated up to november 2016.
2014 Revision (2014 to 2060). Released August 2014.

 

2014 Revision
In 2014 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2013. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, 3) Low–low–low, 4) High–low–high, 5) Low–high–low, 6) Medium–medium–zero, and 7) Constant scenario. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–low–high scenario means "High fertility – Low life expectancy – High net migration". Actually this is a young age structure scenario, while the Low–high–low scenario describes an old age structure scenario.
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2014 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief of assumptions description
Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results (link 1, link 2). These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.30 and 0.18 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

 

 

 

Previous Releases:

2013 Revision (2013 to 2060). Released November 2013.

2013 Revision
In 2013 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2012. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, 3) Low–low–low, 4) High–low–high, 5) Low–high–low, 6) Medium–medium–zero, and 7) Constant scenario. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–low–high scenario means "High fertility – Low life expectancy – High net migration". Actually this is a young age structure scenario, while the Low–high–low scenario describes an old age structure scenario.
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2013 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.28 and 0.18 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.
More detailed description is available in Ukrainian

 

2012 Revision (2012 to 2060). Released November 2012.

2012 Revision
In 2012 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2011. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, 3) Low–low–low, 4) High–low–high, 5) Low–high–low, 6) Medium–medium–zero, and 7) Constant scenario. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–low–high scenario means "High fertility – Low life expectancy – High net migration". Actually this is a young age structure scenario, while the Low–high–low scenario describes an old age structure scenario.
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2012 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.67–1.69 children per woman. The "High" and "Low" assumptions were set at 1.3 and 2.0 children per woman because women in surveys stated that two children is the "desired" number, while 1.3 children per woman is close to the lowest number recently registered in Ukraine.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.16 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.28 and 0.17 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

 

2011 Revision (2011 to 2060). Released September 2011.

2011 Revision
In 2011 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. For net migration there is one additional assumption with no migration (closed population). These assumptions are summarized in six scenarios and one "extra" scenario, in which all components are fixed constant at the level of 2010. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, 3) Low–low–low, 4) High–low–high, 5) Low–high–low, 6) Medium–medium–zero, and 7) Constant scenario. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–low–high scenario means "High fertility – Low life expectancy – High net migration". Actually this is a young age structure scenario, while the Low–high–low scenario describes an old age structure scenario.
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2011 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions based mainly on the survey results. These surveys found out that Ukrainian women of reproductive ages assume to deliver on average 1.75–1.80 children per woman. Thus, according to the "Medium" assumption total fertility rate gradually reaches this level with some reducing (about 5–7%) up to 1.70 children per woman. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.4 and 2.0 children per woman respectively.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.17 and 0.10 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.29 and 0.19 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

 

2010 Revision (2010 to 2050). Released August 2010.

Regional population projection, 2010 Revision
In 2010 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in three scenarios. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, and 3) Low–low–low. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–high–high scenario means "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration".
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2010 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1960 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6–1.7 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.2 and 2.1 children per woman respectively.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.19 and 0.12 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.32 and 0.22 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

 

2009 Revision (2009 to 2050). Released August 2009.

2009 Revision
In 2009 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in three scenarios. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, and 3) Low–low–low. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–high–high scenario means "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration".
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2009 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1960 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.1 and 2.0 children per woman respectively, were 1.1 – among of the lowest levels has reached and 2.0 – the level close to replacement for stable population.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.22 and 0.11 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.35 and 0.23 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.
For this Revision is available population projection for regions of Ukraine.

 

2008 Revision (2008 to 2050). Released November 2008.

2008 Revision
In 2008 revision used 3 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in three scenarios. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, and 3) Low–low–low. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–high–high scenario means "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration".
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2008 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions: while the TFR in Ukraine has fallen to levels close to 1.1 children per woman, no cohort of Ukrainian women (such as those born in 1959 and earlier) thus far has reached a completed fertility rate of less than 1.8 children per woman. Taking into account a huge drop in aspirations for getting children among younger generations it is reasonable to reduce this number to 1.6 children per woman for "Medium" assumption. The "Low" and "High" assumptions were set at 1.1 and 1.9 children per woman respectively.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Recent demographic history of Ukraine shows abnormal dynamics of mortality rates. Even trends of the age specific mortality rates can be different by age in the same period. Extrapolating could be lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. As almost all countries in the world (except Sub Sahara and CIS countries) are experiencing increasing life expectancy, we hope that Ukrainians population will also resume this trend. Also decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.23 and 0.14 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.33 and 0.16 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.

 

2006 Revision (2006 to 2050). Released November 2006.

2006 Revision
In 2006 revision used 5 assumptions for each of components – fertility, life expectancy and net migration. These assumptions are summarized in nineteen scenarios. These scenarios are: 1) Medium–medium–medium, 2) High–high–high, 3) Low–low–low, 4) Constant scenario, 5) High – High – Medium, 6) High – Low – Low, 7) High – Medium – High, 8) High – Medium – Low, 9) High – Medium – Medium, 10) Upper medium – High – High, 11) Upper medium – Medium – High, 12) Low – Medium – Low, 13) Low – Medium – Medium, 14) Medium – High – High, 15) Medium – High – Medium, 16) Medium – Low – Low, 17) Medium – Medium – High, 18) Medium – Medium – Low and 19) Medium – Very low – Very low. The first word implies assumption for fertility component, the second for life expectancy and the third one for net migration. For example:  High–high–high scenario means "High fertility – High life expectancy – High net migration".
The base population for this revision is obtained from the postcensal estimates of the population as of January 1st, 2006 calculated by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. These estimates by age (from 0 to 99 years and 100 years or over) and sex are based on the 2001 Census and covered the whole territory of Ukraine. Accordingly, all yearly projections are for January 1st.


A brief description of assumptions
Fertility assumptions cover a range from 0.9 to 1.8 children per woman.
Life expectancy assumptions are not based on trend models. Extrapolating of the age specific mortality rates can lead to essential distortions of age mortality pattern. A decreasing of life expectancy cannot continue indefinitely. So, "Medium" scenario implies moderate yearly increases in life expectancy by 0.22 and 0.14 for new-born males and females, respectively. The "High" scenario implies a more rapid improvement in mortality, with increasing of life expectancy by 0.33 and 0.17 years per calendar year. "Low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the continuation of mortality crisis with life expectancy holding near current levels. So called "Very low" scenario takes into account the possibility of the huge raising of mortality caused by HIV-AIDS epidemic.
Assumptions concerning the future migration trends include three stages: assessment of future volumes of arrival and departure at aggregated geographical areas; prospective evaluation of the migrants by sex and age; estimation of the number of arrivals and departures by year of birth. Hypotheses of future migrations flows assume that the temporary labour migration of Ukrainian citizens will become permanent.
More detailed description is available in English and Ukrainian.

 

 

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